Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | SLU -4000 BCU +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SLU +59 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | SLU -25.4 (+33.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SLU -21.2 (+37.8) | 150.1 (+14.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -22.3 (+36.7) | 149.6 (+15.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SLU -24.3 (+34.7) | 148.8 (+16.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SLU -24.1 (+34.9) | 149.9 (+15.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 19-0 | 10-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 15.8 (#27) | -5.3 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#42) | -0.46 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.54 (#34) | -0.86 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#40) | 0.480 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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