Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | STAN -750 UTA +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +16 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -9.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -10.5 (+5.5) | 136.2 (-0.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -8.0 (+8.0) | 136.7 (-0.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -8.4 (+7.6) | 136.0 (-0.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -8.7 (+7.3) | 137.8 (-1.8) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#98) | 0.5 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#105) | 1.10 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#108) | 1.24 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#94) | 0.554 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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