Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | ORST -170 SHSU +142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +10 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | SHSU -4.9 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -2.7 (-7.3) | 149.1 (+10.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -0.8 (-9.2) | 147.3 (+12.7) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -1.2 (-8.8) | 148.5 (+11.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -1.7 (-8.3) | 150.4 (+9.6) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#195) | 7.2 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#198) | 1.41 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#196) | 1.82 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#218) | 0.605 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 34.8% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 33.8% |
Game Analysis
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