Betting Lines
| Spread | SYR -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | SYR -2400 MERC +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SYR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SYR +14 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | SYR -20.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SYR -17.8 (-3.8) | 131.3 (+6.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SYR -16.3 (-2.3) | 131.1 (+6.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SYR -16.8 (-2.8) | 129.8 (+8.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SYR -18.4 (-4.4) | 131.0 (+7.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SYR | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#84) | -8.5 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#114) | -2.19 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#91) | -3.10 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#128) | 0.431 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SYR | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 37.1% |
Game Analysis
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