Everybody's in despair, every girl and boy. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
Coleman Coliseum · December 18, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ALA -14.5 Away covered
O/U 178.5 Over
Money ALA -1450 / USF +850
Model Predictions
Spread Total ALA win
Actual ALA +11 197 Won
Massey ALA -14.0 (-3.0)
Massey Totals 183.7 (+13.3)
Bradley-Terry 95%
Weighted B-T 98%
Baseline Plus ML ALA -15.4 (-4.4) 173.7 (+23.3) 86%
Model 4 ML ALA -15.7 (-4.7) 171.1 (+25.9) 87%
Model 3 ML ALA -15.5 (-4.5) 165.6 (+31.4) 88%
Baseline ML ALA -15.1 (-4.1) 168.3 (+28.7) 89%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ALA USF
Overall 25-10 25-9
Conference 13-5 15-3
Home 12-3 13-2
Away 7-3 9-3
Neutral 6-4 3-4
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 91.2 86.8
Avg Pts Against 82.7 76.5
Massey 18.7 (#13) 9.0 (#73)
Bradley-Terry 3.20 (#16) 1.14 (#95)
W. Bradley-Terry 4.99 (#14) 1.89 (#80)
RPI 0.639 (#19) 0.564 (#76)
Shooting & Four Factors ALA USF
FG% 47.7% 43.6%
3PT% 35.0% 31.2%
REB / G 41.6 41.4
OREB / G 11.5 15.5
AST / TO 1.69 1.38
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.0% 50.5%
TOV% 13.6% 15.5%
ORB% 30.7% 37.8%
FT Rate 25.5% 33.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.7% 50.6%
Opp TOV% 13.4% 21.3%
DRB% 67.9% 67.3%
Opp FT Rate 20.3% 30.4%

Game Analysis

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