Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 178.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -1450 USF +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +11 | 197 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -14.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 183.7 (+13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -15.4 (-4.4) | 173.7 (+23.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ALA -15.7 (-4.7) | 171.1 (+25.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ALA -15.5 (-4.5) | 165.6 (+31.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -15.1 (-4.1) | 168.3 (+28.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.2 | 86.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.7 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 18.7 (#13) | 9.0 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#16) | 1.14 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.99 (#14) | 1.89 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#19) | 0.564 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 33.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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