Betting Lines
| Spread | HAMP -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | HAMP -115 GRAM -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAMP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +9 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | GRAM -0.2 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAMP -1.6 (-10.6) | 132.6 (+20.4) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAMP -1.4 (-10.4) | 133.7 (+19.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HAMP -1.1 (-10.1) | 133.7 (+19.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAMP -1.3 (-10.3) | 132.8 (+20.2) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAMP | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-2 | 7-5 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#245) | -4.8 (#240) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#282) | -0.75 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#282) | -1.08 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#320) | 0.483 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAMP | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 28.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 34.7% | 32.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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