Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -1200 FAU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +13 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -12.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -12.8 (+0.2) | 144.6 (+18.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -11.5 (+1.5) | 147.1 (+15.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -11.2 (+1.8) | 147.5 (+15.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -13.6 (-0.6) | 147.6 (+15.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-0 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#33) | 5.0 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.71 (#27) | 1.09 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.21 (#22) | 1.50 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.662 (#10) | 0.573 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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