We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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49–14 on winners spread MAE 10.2 63 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Fresno State @ UNLV +1.9 157.8 57% 72–84 ✓
Omaha @ Lamar +4.6 141.0 66% 85–82 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Utah +9.6 169.8 81% 77–101 ✓
Portland State @ Tulane +0.0 147.9 50% 61–63 ✓
UC Riverside @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +12.1 148.8 87% 78–92 ✓
Sacramento State @ California Baptist +15.1 146.1 92% 67–74 ✓
Stanford @ Colorado +2.4 169.7 59% 77–68 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Rutgers +7.4 149.8 75% 69–70 ✓
Texas Tech @ Duke +11.7 151.1 86% 82–81 ✗
Xavier @ Georgetown +4.4 154.3 66% 80–77 ✗
Marquette @ Creighton +12.4 149.0 87% 63–84 ✓
San José State @ New Mexico +15.3 146.6 92% 65–88 ✓
Rice @ Pepperdine +1.1 137.6 54% 62–84 ✓
Utah Tech @ Weber State +9.0 155.7 79% 82–80 ✗
Boise State @ Nevada -2.6 142.1 41% 66–81 ✗
San Diego State @ Arizona +14.7 160.9 91% 45–68 ✓
Colgate @ Florida +19.5 154.3 96% 60–90 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Boston University +5.4 158.0 69% 76–88 ✓
Charleston @ Northern Kentucky +6.1 151.5 71% 85–74 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Penn State +2.2 151.0 58% 80–46 ✗
Vanderbilt @ Wake Forest -4.6 167.3 34% 98–67 ✓
Lehigh @ Monmouth +8.3 146.7 77% 62–76 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Hofstra +10.1 150.8 82% 66–74 ✓
Southern @ Baylor +23.2 181.9 98% 67–111 ✓
Ole Miss @ NC State +8.9 157.5 79% 62–76 ✓
Stony Brook @ Marist +7.3 134.6 75% 51–70 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Alabama +21.8 190.7 98% 81–92 ✓
Murray State @ Valparaiso -6.9 157.2 27% 85–79 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Bradley +4.6 157.1 66% 69–73 ✓
Presbyterian @ Manhattan -0.6 140.9 48% 81–87 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Furman +6.1 149.9 71% 76–84 ✓
UIC @ Charlotte +4.7 139.2 67% 76–88 ✓
Maine @ Drexel +7.9 125.5 76% 56–74 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ George Mason +26.2 143.0 99% 79–86 ✓
Central Arkansas @ SMU +19.0 153.3 96% 82–99 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Notre Dame +17.7 153.5 95% 72–69 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Oklahoma State +17.3 181.0 94% 89–94 ✓
VMI @ Radford +12.0 159.3 86% 90–97 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Tennessee +41.7 153.4 100% 52–94 ✓
Cornell @ UAlbany -5.5 176.4 31% 83–75 ✓
Chattanooga @ Alabama A&M +6.2 137.2 71% 73–66 ✗
UNC Asheville @ UAB +10.7 148.1 83% 47–72 ✓
UMBC @ South Florida +21.1 158.2 97% 69–94 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Incarnate Word +7.4 138.5 75% 66–90 ✓
Oregon State @ Arizona State +13.5 150.8 89% 78–75 ✗
New Hampshire @ Saint Louis +34.9 147.7 100% 79–93 ✓
Cincinnati @ Clemson +8.7 136.3 79% 65–68 ✓
La Salle @ Michigan +40.9 147.6 100% 50–102 ✓
Drake @ Evansville -6.3 147.8 28% 66–65 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Texas A&M +18.9 163.8 96% 77–118 ✓
Florida A&M @ TCU +27.2 139.5 99% 56–80 ✓
North Florida @ Miami +32.4 168.4 100% 67–105 ✓
Sam Houston @ New Mexico State -1.1 153.9 46% 78–87 ✗
UConn @ DePaul -13.9 135.5 10% 72–54 ✓
Indiana State @ Illinois State +16.5 147.9 93% 65–85 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Wichita State +16.2 146.6 93% 57–88 ✓
Milwaukee @ Cleveland State -4.7 169.4 34% 81–71 ✓
Columbia @ California +7.2 148.6 74% 56–74 ✓
Long Beach State @ Iowa State +34.9 158.8 100% 60–91 ✓
Gonzaga @ Oregon -21.6 153.7 2% 91–82 ✓
Campbell @ Minnesota +12.4 146.3 87% 50–78 ✓
UC Davis @ Idaho State +10.0 141.5 82% 93–83 ✗
Morgan State @ San Francisco +24.9 148.5 99% 64–94 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.