Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | NKU -218 COFC +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +11 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | NKU -5.8 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -4.0 (-15.0) | 145.9 (+13.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -5.9 (-16.9) | 145.6 (+13.4) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -5.5 (-16.5) | 146.4 (+12.6) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -5.6 (-16.6) | 146.2 (+12.8) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2024 | COFC 79 – 64 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#183) | -2.8 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#187) | -0.48 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#187) | -0.54 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#232) | 0.459 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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