Betting Lines
| Spread | COR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Under |
| Money | UALB +230 COR -285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UALB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COR +8 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | COR -5.7 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 175.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COR -6.9 (-1.1) | 161.6 (-3.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COR -3.9 (-4.1) | 163.3 (-5.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COR -3.9 (-4.1) | 161.6 (-3.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COR -2.2 (-5.8) | 163.6 (-5.6) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UALB | COR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 15-13 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 8-6 |
| Home | 6-5 | 7-4 |
| Away | 4-13 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 85.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 84.6 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#302) | 1.2 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#292) | -0.12 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#269) | -0.40 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#238) | 0.513 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UALB | COR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 59.4% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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