Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | USF -6500 UMBC +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +25 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | USF -20.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -18.7 (+6.3) | 151.9 (+11.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | USF -15.8 (+9.2) | 150.9 (+12.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | USF -16.8 (+8.2) | 150.8 (+12.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -18.3 (+6.7) | 150.8 (+12.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-2 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.8 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#68) | -7.4 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#95) | -0.96 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#84) | -1.46 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#81) | 0.453 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 41.8 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 16.4 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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