Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | TULN -155 PRST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +2 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | PRST -0.4 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -1.9 (+0.1) | 143.5 (-19.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | TULN -1.7 (+0.3) | 142.2 (-18.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | TULN -1.2 (+0.8) | 142.1 (-18.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -1.7 (+0.3) | 143.0 (-19.0) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-8 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#265) | -1.4 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#164) | -0.34 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#203) | -0.39 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#159) | 0.498 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 36.6% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 34.8% |
Game Analysis
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