See my tailor, he's called Simon, I know it's going to fit. "Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll" - Ian Dury
Haas Pavilion · December 21, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread CAL -8.5 Home covered
O/U 153.5 Under
Money CAL -410 / COLU +320
Model Predictions
Spread Total CAL win
Actual CAL +18 130 Won
Massey CAL -7.4 (+10.6)
Massey Totals 149.1 (-19.1)
Bradley-Terry 86%
Weighted B-T 96%
Efficiency Plus ML CAL -8.9 (+9.1) 143.9 (-13.9) 77%
Baseline Tuned ML CAL -8.9 (+9.1) 144.9 (-14.9) 78%
Baseline ML CAL -8.9 (+9.1) 145.8 (-15.8) 76%
Baseline Plus ML CAL -9.2 (+8.8) 142.9 (-12.9) 80%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CAL COLU
Overall 22-12 16-12
Conference 9-9 5-9
Home 17-5 9-5
Away 4-6 7-7
Neutral 1-1 0-0
Last 5 5-0 4-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 77.7 74.9
Avg Pts Against 73.4 73.5
Massey 9.6 (#62) 6.4 (#92)
Bradley-Terry 2.60 (#32) 1.49 (#69)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.75 (#28) 1.43 (#100)
RPI 0.569 (#70) 0.560 (#83)
Shooting & Four Factors CAL COLU
FG% 48.7% 48.0%
3PT% 40.2% 39.5%
REB / G 35.9 42.1
OREB / G 9.4 13.4
AST / TO 1.47 1.14
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.1% 55.7%
TOV% 15.6% 20.4%
ORB% 29.4% 40.2%
FT Rate 30.2% 21.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.7% 47.0%
Opp TOV% 18.1% 15.4%
DRB% 69.7% 73.6%
Opp FT Rate 21.2% 22.3%

Game Analysis

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