Betting Lines
| Spread | PRES -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MAN +114 PRES -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +6 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | PRES -1.4 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRES -1.6 (+7.6) | 135.1 (+32.9) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRES -0.4 (+6.4) | 134.4 (+33.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -0.6 (+5.4) | 134.4 (+33.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -0.7 (+5.3) | 132.8 (+35.2) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | MAN 86 – 81 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 73.1 |
| Massey | -12.9 (#337) | -7.4 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#297) | -1.20 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#289) | -2.05 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#291) | 0.437 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 59.6% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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