Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE +215 VAN -265 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +31 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | VAN -4.6 (-26.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -0.1 (-30.9) | 159.7 (+5.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -0.8 (-30.2) | 158.1 (+6.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -0.5 (-30.5) | 160.0 (+5.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -0.0 (-31.0) | 160.4 (+4.6) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-7 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 85.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#51) | 20.2 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#82) | 4.99 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#85) | 7.24 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#91) | 0.663 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 58.2% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 34.4% |
Game Analysis
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