Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | DREX -600 ME +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +18 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -8.1 (+9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -7.0 (+11.0) | 128.1 (+1.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | DREX -7.4 (+10.6) | 128.1 (+1.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | DREX -5.6 (+12.4) | 128.9 (+1.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -6.7 (+11.3) | 128.1 (+1.9) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 4-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 61.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#295) | -12.1 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#304) | -2.95 (#346) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.30 (#300) | -4.05 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#325) | 0.387 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 61.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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