Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | PSU -112 PITT -108 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +34 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | PSU -1.3 (-35.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -1.0 (-35.0) | 140.8 (-14.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -2.4 (-36.4) | 146.0 (-20.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -5.1 (-39.1) | 146.8 (-20.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -3.6 (-37.6) | 144.9 (-18.9) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-8 | 8-10 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#112) | 2.9 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#115) | 0.08 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#122) | -0.16 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#102) | 0.499 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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