Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -27.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +30 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -19.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -22.7 (+7.3) | 150.0 (-0.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -18.8 (+11.2) | 149.5 (+0.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -20.3 (+9.7) | 150.5 (-0.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -20.4 (+9.6) | 150.6 (-0.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#23) | 1.4 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#50) | -0.02 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.56 (#36) | 0.14 (#160) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#47) | 0.536 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | COLG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 46.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 16.4 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 42.8% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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