I'm so tired of being lonely, I still have some love to give. "Handle With Care" - The Travelling WIlburys
Stephen C. O'Connell Center · December 21, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread FLA -27.5 Home covered
O/U 156.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total FLA win
Actual FLA +30 150 Won
Massey FLA -19.6 (+10.4)
Massey Totals 155.1 (-5.1)
Bradley-Terry 95%
Weighted B-T 99%
Efficiency Plus ML FLA -22.7 (+7.3) 150.0 (-0.0) 90%
Baseline Tuned ML FLA -18.8 (+11.2) 149.5 (+0.5) 90%
Baseline ML FLA -20.3 (+9.7) 150.5 (-0.5) 90%
Baseline Plus ML FLA -20.4 (+9.6) 150.6 (-0.6) 89%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FLA COLG
Overall 27-8 18-15
Conference 16-2 11-7
Home 14-1 9-5
Away 8-2 6-10
Neutral 5-5 2-0
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 87.1 75.6
Avg Pts Against 71.5 76.2
Massey 16.9 (#23) 1.4 (#150)
Bradley-Terry 2.16 (#50) -0.02 (#173)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.56 (#36) 0.14 (#160)
RPI 0.595 (#47) 0.536 (#111)
Shooting & Four Factors FLA COLG
FG% 45.1% 47.5%
3PT% 27.8% 32.4%
REB / G 46.2 32.6
OREB / G 16.4 8.2
AST / TO 1.12 1.38
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.1% 53.1%
TOV% 19.1% 14.5%
ORB% 42.8% 24.9%
FT Rate 29.9% 17.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.8% 49.3%
Opp TOV% 15.4% 15.6%
DRB% 75.4% 65.0%
Opp FT Rate 25.8% 24.1%

Game Analysis

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