Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -37.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +31 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -35.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -27.2 (+3.8) | 152.8 (-1.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -25.5 (+5.5) | 152.1 (-1.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -33.0 (-2.0) | 154.6 (-3.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -33.2 (-2.2) | 153.4 (-2.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-14 |
| Home | 16-1 | 7-9 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.0 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 24.8 (#4) | -6.3 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.31 (#3) | -1.54 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 8.80 (#1) | -1.86 (#278) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#20) | 0.403 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.6% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 34.8% |
Game Analysis
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