Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -40.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +52 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -41.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -25.9 (+26.1) | 145.3 (+6.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -25.1 (+26.9) | 142.6 (+9.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -32.5 (+19.5) | 142.6 (+9.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -32.9 (+19.1) | 145.1 (+6.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 11-0 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 12-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.3 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 31.5 (#1) | -5.8 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.25 (#4) | -1.49 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 8.36 (#4) | -1.97 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.748 (#1) | 0.418 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.0% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.2% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.4% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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