Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -9000 CARK +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +17 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -20.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+27.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -21.6 (-4.6) | 150.5 (+30.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -17.1 (-0.1) | 146.8 (+34.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -19.1 (-2.1) | 147.2 (+33.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -18.0 (-1.0) | 150.9 (+30.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.1 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#37) | -3.1 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#19) | -1.49 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#34) | -1.95 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#16) | 0.442 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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