Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | ND -900 PFW +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +3 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | ND -18.3 (-21.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -16.0 (-19.0) | 145.5 (-4.5) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -16.5 (-19.5) | 147.9 (-6.9) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ND -17.3 (-20.3) | 148.2 (-7.2) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -18.2 (-21.2) | 146.5 (-5.5) | 88% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#61) | -4.5 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#51) | -0.20 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#48) | -0.51 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#51) | 0.487 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 29.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 58.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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