Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | RICH -2400 CIT +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +24 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -24.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -18.8 (+5.2) | 149.1 (-13.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -21.2 (+2.8) | 144.3 (-8.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -22.8 (+1.2) | 145.3 (-9.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -23.0 (+1.0) | 144.0 (-8.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-7 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#95) | -14.2 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#68) | -4.29 (#364) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#58) | -5.83 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#78) | 0.318 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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