Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -575 LIB +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +3 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -9.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -8.8 (-11.8) | 143.7 (-18.7) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -10.0 (-13.0) | 141.7 (-16.7) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -10.1 (-13.1) | 143.2 (-18.2) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -11.4 (-14.4) | 141.5 (-16.5) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 17-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-5 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#79) | 2.5 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#71) | 0.46 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#84) | 0.83 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#82) | 0.516 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 28.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 60.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 20.2% |
| FT Rate | 36.2% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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