Betting Lines
| Spread | MERC -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | MERC -410 BING +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MERC +21 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | MERC -14.9 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MERC -10.1 (+10.9) | 129.3 (+13.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MERC -11.1 (+9.9) | 131.9 (+11.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MERC -11.0 (+10.0) | 132.1 (+10.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MERC -11.4 (+9.6) | 129.7 (+13.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2024 | BING 62 – 60 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | BING |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-14 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 76.7 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#293) | -18.6 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#328) | -3.80 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.06 (#327) | -5.17 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#296) | 0.312 (#363) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | BING |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 38.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.1% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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