Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +55 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -29.6 (+25.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -24.4 (+30.6) | 127.7 (+5.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -23.6 (+31.4) | 133.8 (-0.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -26.3 (+28.7) | 132.6 (+0.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -26.2 (+28.8) | 131.7 (+1.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-3 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#27) | -9.4 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#25) | -1.93 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.97 (#24) | -2.54 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#28) | 0.422 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.1% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.9% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.2% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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