Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -1800 MD +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +8 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -20.0 (-12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (-6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -15.0 (-7.0) | 153.3 (-1.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -18.1 (-10.1) | 154.1 (-2.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -18.5 (-10.5) | 154.0 (-2.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -20.2 (-12.2) | 152.5 (-0.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-6 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-16 |
| Home | 16-1 | 7-8 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 15.2 (#30) | -0.5 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#36) | 0.74 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.62 (#32) | 0.92 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#68) | 0.523 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 41.9% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 37.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.