Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -8000 MORG +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +47 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -29.3 (+17.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -23.7 (+23.3) | 147.9 (-0.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -22.7 (+24.3) | 149.4 (-2.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -26.2 (+20.8) | 148.7 (-1.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -26.1 (+20.9) | 147.0 (-0.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-4 |
| Home | 17-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 80.1 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#80) | -17.0 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#35) | -3.77 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.74 (#30) | -4.58 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#57) | 0.307 (#364) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 40.5% |
Game Analysis
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