Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -38.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +20 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | IU -34.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -27.4 (-7.4) | 151.0 (-15.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -26.3 (-6.3) | 149.3 (-13.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -33.3 (-13.3) | 151.6 (-15.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -35.5 (-15.5) | 150.7 (-14.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 5-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-19 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 18.0 (#18) | -11.7 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#91) | -2.20 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#87) | -2.59 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#64) | 0.441 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.83 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.1% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 58.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 61.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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