Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | WKU +120 TLSA -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +1 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -4.7 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -1.8 (+0.8) | 156.8 (+6.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -4.0 (+3.0) | 157.1 (+5.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -3.1 (+2.1) | 157.3 (+5.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -3.4 (+2.4) | 154.7 (+8.3) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WKU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 16-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 83.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#124) | 12.2 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#99) | 2.50 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#110) | 3.73 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#102) | 0.619 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WKU | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 41.9% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 58.5% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 36.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.