Betting Lines
| Spread | DREX -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | DREX -230 MSM +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +8 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -7.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DREX -6.7 (+1.3) | 138.9 (+3.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DREX -5.8 (+2.2) | 140.2 (+1.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DREX -5.2 (+2.8) | 141.2 (+0.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DREX -7.0 (+1.0) | 140.0 (+2.0) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#295) | -11.3 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#309) | -2.06 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.43 (#304) | -3.08 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#335) | 0.419 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.1% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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