Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | ARK +200 HOU -245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +9 | 179 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -0.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+35.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -2.1 (-11.1) | 142.3 (+36.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ARK -2.1 (-11.1) | 143.7 (+35.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | ARK -1.1 (-10.1) | 139.1 (+39.9) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -1.4 (-10.4) | 140.1 (+38.9) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 17-1 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 9-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.2 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 62.3 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#21) | 16.9 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#16) | 2.96 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.36 (#12) | 4.10 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#38) | 0.600 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.88 | 1.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 38.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 42.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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