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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
39–20 on winners
spread MAE 12.5
59 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona
@
Duke
|
+4.1 | 159.5 | 64% | 78–73 | ✗ |
Morehead State
@
Purdue
|
+33.1 | 155.7 | 100% | 57–87 | ✓ |
UCF
@
Miami
|
+26.9 | 150.5 | 99% | 72–88 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
Ohio State
|
+5.3 | 142.7 | 69% | 73–66 | ✗ |
East Texas A&M
@
Kentucky
|
+30.9 | 129.4 | 100% | 61–81 | ✓ |
Boston University
@
Rutgers
|
+9.9 | 133.4 | 82% | 45–69 | ✓ |
South Carolina Upstate
@
Vanderbilt
|
+12.5 | 136.9 | 87% | 67–74 | ✓ |
Boston College
@
The Citadel
|
+13.8 | 142.3 | 89% | 75–71 | ✗ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Cincinnati
|
+20.1 | 142.3 | 97% | 61–93 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
NC State
|
+7.7 | 133.2 | 76% | 64–84 | ✓ |
Marshall
@
Radford
|
-0.1 | 154.8 | 50% | 62–66 | ✗ |
Wake Forest
@
Georgia
|
+11.7 | 160.0 | 86% | 77–80 | ✓ |
Samford
@
VCU
|
+17.5 | 143.8 | 94% | 65–75 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
West Virginia
|
+11.3 | 134.9 | 85% | 73–65 | ✗ |
Virginia
@
Florida
|
-9.2 | 146.0 | 20% | 73–70 | ✓ |
Binghamton
@
Pittsburgh
|
+24.3 | 143.5 | 99% | 60–89 | ✓ |
Lehigh
@
Penn State
|
+29.2 | 143.9 | 100% | 65–74 | ✓ |
UTSA
@
Minnesota
|
+22.4 | 144.5 | 98% | 76–102 | ✓ |
Manhattan
@
Kansas
|
+19.3 | 140.7 | 96% | 61–99 | ✓ |
Oakland
@
Illinois
|
+16.2 | 143.7 | 93% | 53–64 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Iowa
|
+21.6 | 150.0 | 98% | 67–98 | ✓ |
Bellarmine
@
Kansas State
|
+20.4 | 149.0 | 97% | 75–83 | ✓ |
Eastern Washington
@
Ole Miss
|
+19.6 | 146.6 | 96% | 64–75 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
LSU
|
+23.2 | 160.5 | 98% | 68–66 | ✗ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Oklahoma
|
+30.2 | 153.2 | 100% | 43–82 | ✓ |
Temple
@
Navy
|
+13.4 | 133.6 | 89% | 75–68 | ✗ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
Butler
|
+25.0 | 150.0 | 99% | 56–91 | ✓ |
Little Rock
@
UIC
|
+20.2 | 136.7 | 97% | 71–86 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
Northwestern
|
+12.0 | 129.2 | 86% | 66–71 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Wisconsin
|
+10.9 | 148.7 | 84% | 80–70 | ✗ |
San Diego State
@
BYU
|
+22.2 | 152.8 | 98% | 65–74 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Texas
|
+26.8 | 138.2 | 99% | 59–86 | ✓ |
Sacramento State
@
Stanford
|
+14.6 | 151.3 | 91% | 73–91 | ✓ |
Memphis
@
Missouri
|
+19.8 | 166.4 | 96% | 70–55 | ✗ |
Clemson
@
UAB
|
-8.4 | 141.4 | 22% | 77–76 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
South Carolina
|
-0.3 | 149.0 | 49% | 77–79 | ✗ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Washington State
|
+15.7 | 141.1 | 92% | 65–83 | ✓ |
Lafayette
@
UCLA
|
+23.0 | 137.1 | 98% | 50–68 | ✓ |
Pacific
@
California
|
+22.1 | 135.4 | 98% | 87–79 | ✗ |
Texas State
@
Miami (OH)
|
+14.3 | 139.7 | 90% | 75–65 | ✗ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Brown
|
+21.1 | 151.2 | 97% | 77–75 | ✗ |
Stonehill
@
UConn
|
+34.2 | 132.1 | 100% | 67–107 | ✓ |
UL Monroe
@
Central Michigan
|
+24.4 | 135.9 | 99% | 74–64 | ✗ |
Georgia Southern
@
Eastern Michigan
|
+12.2 | 144.5 | 87% | 60–70 | ✓ |
Arkansas State
@
Bowling Green
|
+22.6 | 145.6 | 98% | 75–81 | ✓ |
Cornell
@
Fordham
|
+4.8 | 146.5 | 67% | 78–73 | ✗ |
William & Mary
@
George Washington
|
+23.8 | 139.8 | 98% | 89–95 | ✓ |
Georgia State
@
Western Michigan
|
+4.5 | 159.1 | 66% | 77–70 | ✗ |
North Dakota State
@
Creighton
|
+22.1 | 155.2 | 98% | 60–89 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
Tulsa
|
+21.1 | 137.5 | 97% | 71–85 | ✓ |
Northeastern
@
La Salle
|
+13.4 | 132.8 | 89% | 74–79 | ✓ |
Marist
@
UMBC
|
+8.9 | 157.4 | 79% | 65–59 | ✗ |
Texas Southern
@
Arizona State
|
+17.6 | 141.9 | 94% | 52–63 | ✓ |
Saint Peter's
@
NJIT
|
+6.4 | 145.4 | 72% | 75–48 | ✗ |
Coppin State
@
Mount St. Mary's
|
+31.6 | 133.0 | 100% | 60–74 | ✓ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Seton Hall
|
+7.4 | 150.6 | 75% | 55–85 | ✓ |
Canisius
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+10.6 | 150.9 | 83% | 70–67 | ✗ |
Drexel
@
Winthrop
|
+9.1 | 135.9 | 80% | 74–72 | ✗ |
Ohio
@
Cleveland State
|
+21.2 | 151.3 | 97% | 78–82 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.