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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–3 on winners
spread MAE 14.6
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Southern Indiana
@
Michigan State
|
+9.4 | 146.5 | 80% | 51–74 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
Florida International
|
+21.4 | 141.1 | 97% | 82–65 | ✗ |
Army
@
Stonehill
|
+20.8 | 135.1 | 97% | 44–57 | ✓ |
Fairfield
@
Rhode Island
|
+15.8 | 151.9 | 92% | 80–93 | ✓ |
Howard
@
Georgia Tech
|
+22.4 | 154.4 | 98% | 85–88 | ✓ |
Towson
@
Coppin State
|
+9.4 | 144.2 | 80% | 70–49 | ✗ |
Lindenwood
@
Iowa State
|
+30.7 | 137.0 | 100% | 47–102 | ✓ |
Florida A&M
@
Nebraska
|
+33.9 | 147.2 | 100% | 54–81 | ✓ |
Cal State Bakersfield
@
USC
|
+26.8 | 147.9 | 99% | 59–85 | ✓ |
Cal State Northridge
@
Idaho
|
+11.6 | 151.9 | 85% | 76–73 | ✗ |
Northern Kentucky
@
Washington
|
+22.6 | 141.5 | 98% | 67–75 | ✓ |
Charleston
@
Duquesne
|
+0.0 | 147.3 | 50% | 72–90 | ✓ |
Le Moyne
@
Villanova
|
+27.1 | 150.4 | 99% | 57–83 | ✓ |
Youngstown State
@
Michigan
|
+17.6 | 151.1 | 95% | 62–92 | ✓ |
Pennsylvania
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+22.3 | 143.7 | 98% | 61–69 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.