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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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15–5 on winners spread MAE 9.6 56 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Mississippi Valley State @ UConn	+28.8	152.3	91%	53–87	✓
Duke @ Michigan State	-3.7	138.1	32%	74–65	✓
Eastern Michigan @ Florida Atlantic	—	—	—	57–100	—
Mercer @ Morehead State	—	—	—	66–74	—
Georgia Southern @ Jacksonville	—	—	—	68–85	—
Bellarmine @ Chattanooga	—	—	—	64–72	—
IU Indianapolis @ Indiana State	—	—	—	57–96	—
Lipscomb @ Tennessee Tech	—	—	—	96–65	—
Temple @ Drexel	+1.0	142.7	55%	66–64	✗
Saint Francis @ Penn State	+22.4	131.6	90%	53–83	✓
Bowling Green @ Oakland	+2.6	132.6	65%	62–81	✓
Colgate @ Syracuse	—	—	—	75–79	—
Wagner @ Rhode Island	—	—	—	53–69	—
High Point @ Queens University	—	—	—	72–74	—
Northeastern @ Harvard	—	—	—	56–80	—
Hofstra @ George Washington	—	—	—	60–71	—
Sacred Heart @ Holy Cross	—	—	—	84–77	—
Toledo @ Wright State	—	—	—	78–77	—
Stonehill @ Saint Joseph's	+17.8	137.6	89%	56–100	✓
Florida A&M @ Florida	+22.9	147.5	91%	68–89	✓
Jacksonville State @ West Virginia	—	—	—	57–70	—
North Carolina A&T @ Virginia	—	—	—	51–80	—
Brown @ New Hampshire	—	—	—	64–82	—
Boston University @ Howard	+9.3	138.0	84%	53–64	✓
North Alabama @ Mississippi State	—	—	—	54–81	—
UMass Lowell @ Georgia Tech	—	—	—	74–71	—
Marquette @ Illinois	—	—	—	71–64	—
Texas A&M @ SMU	—	—	—	79–66	—
South Alabama @ Alabama	—	—	—	46–102	—
Prairie View A&M @ Abilene Christian	+7.4	136.7	70%	79–74	✗
Alcorn State @ Arkansas State	—	—	—	86–100	—
UNC Greensboro @ Vanderbilt	—	—	—	70–74	—
Detroit Mercy @ Ole Miss	+13.8	138.6	89%	69–70	✓
Western Kentucky @ Murray State	—	—	—	86–81	—
Green Bay @ Valparaiso	—	—	—	59–64	—
Colorado State @ Northern Colorado	—	—	—	83–64	—
Tarleton State @ Bradley	—	—	—	63–86	—
Texas State @ Oklahoma	+12.4	140.0	81%	54–93	✓
UTSA @ Lamar	—	—	—	82–90	—
Western Michigan @ Northwestern	+15.3	131.5	89%	59–63	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ TCU	—	—	—	55–88	—
UIC @ Loyola Chicago	+2.6	140.7	48%	72–67	✗
Cal State Northridge @ Chicago State	-1.5	141.1	48%	74–64	✓
Milwaukee @ Colorado	—	—	—	79–106	—
South Dakota @ DePaul	—	—	—	60–72	—
Southern Utah @ Utah State	—	—	—	84–93	—
Santa Clara @ Stanford	+5.6	153.4	62%	89–77	✗
Kentucky @ Kansas	+4.7	147.8	62%	84–89	✓
Iowa @ Creighton	+7.9	160.6	82%	84–92	✓
Kansas City @ Baylor	—	—	—	61–99	—
Long Beach State @ San Diego State	+10.2	144.6	80%	76–88	✓
Jackson State @ Loyola Marymount	—	—	—	66–88	—
App State @ Oregon State	—	—	—	71–81	—
UC Irvine @ USC	+9.1	149.1	77%	70–60	✗
Campbell @ Virginia Tech	—	—	—	44–60	—
UAlbany @ Seton Hall	+17.6	141.5	90%	71–96	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.