Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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47–19 on winners spread MAE 10.6 66 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Mississippi Valley State @ Florida State +26.4 153.8 90% 49–96 ✓
La Salle @ High Point +13.2 144.4 85% 72–84 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Akron +14.6 149.7 86% 72–93 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Drexel +5.2 141.2 68% 67–75 ✓
Norfolk State @ Jackson State -7.5 132.4 20% 82–72 ✓
Tulsa @ Western Kentucky -3.1 157.3 35% 82–81 ✓
Florida A&M @ Tarleton State +14.3 148.5 88% 54–78 ✓
Wisconsin @ Villanova +5.1 148.3 71% 66–76 ✓
Alcorn State @ Baylor +28.4 160.6 91% 56–113 ✓
SE Louisiana @ LSU +25.0 142.8 90% 65–78 ✓
Belmont @ UC Irvine -0.8 138.3 43% 84–58 ✓
Abilene Christian @ BYU +28.2 143.2 91% 67–85 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Saint Mary's +11.2 147.5 84% 75–88 ✓
San Diego @ UC San Diego +19.7 149.6 90% 82–80 ✗
North Alabama @ Loyola Marymount +8.6 132.5 78% 57–91 ✓
Cal Poly @ UCLA +17.0 153.1 88% 87–108 ✓
Morgan State @ California +26.2 148.7 91% 50–97 ✓
Washington @ Seattle U +1.3 142.9 55% 66–70 ✓
Oakland @ Michigan State +18.9 147.7 88% 70–79 ✓
Montana @ Louisville +27.4 159.9 91% 54–94 ✓
South Dakota @ Kansas State +20.8 160.2 89% 76–106 ✓
St. John's @ Kentucky +3.9 151.7 58% 66–78 ✓
Liberty @ Dayton +10.1 143.2 83% 64–61 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Youngstown State +6.4 142.2 74% 65–74 ✓
Chicago State @ Indiana +33.3 151.6 91% 58–78 ✓
Le Moyne @ St. Bonaventure +13.8 149.5 87% 81–92 ✓
Buffalo @ Western Michigan -1.1 147.4 48% 88–71 ✓
Robert Morris @ Saint Francis -10.9 143.1 15% 79–70 ✓
Georgia State @ App State +11.0 133.9 83% 70–63 ✗
Colorado State @ Utah State +5.8 145.8 75% 58–100 ✓
Howard @ UNC Wilmington +14.3 137.3 87% 67–66 ✗
Longwood @ North Carolina Central -0.4 143.7 42% 74–72 ✓
Lafayette @ Georgia Tech +11.9 140.2 83% 81–95 ✓
Iona @ Vermont +3.6 152.3 64% 83–78 ✗
Binghamton @ Mercyhurst +11.0 132.1 87% 61–82 ✓
Elon @ Virginia Tech +13.3 158.3 87% 81–82 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Ball State -12.5 141.9 17% 86–77 ✓
Kent State @ Massachusetts +3.2 161.9 70% 69–59 ✗
Holy Cross @ Harvard +6.4 134.4 74% 53–81 ✓
Marshall @ Troy +1.8 155.8 64% 63–70 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Old Dominion +3.8 141.9 64% 76–74 ✗
Denver @ Northern Colorado +12.4 162.5 87% 86–79 ✗
Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois +4.7 143.5 71% 73–74 ✓
Louisiana @ UL Monroe +0.9 134.1 46% 76–62 ✗
North Carolina @ Ohio State +1.7 146.0 51% 71–70 ✗
South Alabama @ Texas State -1.7 140.1 42% 65–67 ✗
Memphis @ Mississippi State +3.6 147.6 68% 66–71 ✓
Jacksonville State @ East Tennessee State +17.1 134.3 88% 81–75 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Wyoming +9.8 140.5 83% 82–70 ✗
Northwestern @ Butler +4.3 155.3 65% 58–61 ✓
Northeastern @ Syracuse +12.8 137.3 85% 83–91 ✓
Bowling Green @ Ohio -4.8 145.2 32% 68–58 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee Tech +2.5 140.2 64% 86–62 ✗
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss +1.2 152.1 59% 93–86 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee State +3.6 145.0 69% 91–82 ✗
Morehead State @ Southern Indiana +0.1 141.8 42% 64–60 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ UCF +17.4 157.1 89% 80–102 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Santa Clara +20.7 149.4 89% 80–78 ✗
Mercer @ Washington State +2.1 142.7 60% 78–84 ✓
Long Island University @ Florida International +4.6 154.3 69% 79–86 ✓
James Madison @ Georgia Southern +3.6 152.2 66% 92–96 ✓
Houston @ Arkansas +1.4 140.1 54% 94–85 ✗
Maryland @ Virginia +18.5 154.0 90% 72–80 ✓
The Citadel @ Richmond +22.8 145.3 91% 56–80 ✓
Bucknell @ Iowa +26.3 132.6 91% 39–94 ✓
Auburn @ Purdue +11.1 149.6 80% 60–88 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.