I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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52–13 on winners spread MAE 9.7 65 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Indiana @ Minnesota -10.3 136.0 19% 64–73 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Western Michigan +5.2 146.3 64% 74–88 ✓
North Carolina Central @ James Madison +14.1 144.0 87% 62–67 ✓
Louisiana @ Lamar +14.9 130.6 85% 55–65 ✓
Drexel @ American University +6.2 139.8 68% 73–75 ✓
Cornell @ Towson +4.8 143.7 70% 80–93 ✓
New Hampshire @ Dartmouth +8.8 138.3 76% 68–69 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina Upstate +5.0 137.1 66% 78–85 ✓
Southern Illinois @ High Point +14.6 155.9 85% 86–84 ✗
Presbyterian @ Wofford +7.2 133.7 68% 56–63 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Georgia Southern +3.2 134.0 62% 69–77 ✓
Southern Miss @ Radford -6.5 151.2 27% 82–75 ✓
Furman @ Elon +6.7 150.6 72% 97–88 ✗
Marshall @ UNC Wilmington +8.2 145.6 79% 69–70 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Queens University +16.0 152.8 89% 74–107 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Florida International +2.4 154.2 58% 83–89 ✓
Austin Peay @ Kent State +2.4 149.5 63% 84–96 ✓
Maine @ Ohio +4.4 134.4 56% 57–79 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Hampton +7.9 139.4 76% 71–93 ✓
Navy @ Delaware State -8.3 132.7 15% 66–59 ✓
Coppin State @ West Virginia +26.8 132.4 91% 49–91 ✓
Hofstra @ Columbia +9.2 141.6 77% 70–72 ✓
Cleveland State @ Northern Kentucky +13.4 150.7 87% 80–95 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Oakland +11.9 157.5 84% 92–101 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Detroit Mercy +1.6 160.4 62% 78–92 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Mount St. Mary's +1.1 150.0 52% 87–80 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Seton Hall +14.3 134.0 84% 61–77 ✓
Harvard @ Massachusetts +3.7 139.4 64% 71–78 ✓
Bucknell @ Akron +27.7 154.1 91% 77–97 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Stephen F. Austin +6.5 146.5 75% 60–73 ✓
Louisville @ Arkansas +0.5 158.2 55% 80–89 ✓
Clemson @ Alabama +10.5 161.9 81% 84–90 ✓
LSU @ Boston College -7.2 142.9 22% 78–69 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ UL Monroe +7.3 150.1 81% 52–66 ✓
Little Rock @ Central Arkansas +5.7 135.0 72% 47–85 ✓
Richmond @ Belmont +11.9 150.4 83% 84–76 ✗
Alcorn State @ Iowa State +31.8 154.0 91% 68–132 ✓
Tennessee State @ Alabama A&M -1.8 140.4 45% 53–80 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Omaha -5.9 153.8 33% 75–70 ✓
South Dakota State @ Northern Arizona +3.4 139.7 63% 75–62 ✗
Princeton @ Monmouth +6.2 141.0 72% 58–63 ✓
Idaho State @ Kansas City -8.7 136.0 18% 68–59 ✓
UMBC @ Georgetown +11.9 141.2 84% 81–90 ✓
Ball State @ Evansville +4.6 135.4 63% 52–64 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Illinois State +16.1 145.9 87% 78–89 ✓
Portland State @ South Dakota -0.1 155.9 50% 77–71 ✓
New Orleans @ Memphis +5.1 144.1 69% 70–86 ✓
California Baptist @ BYU +14.0 141.7 84% 60–91 ✓
North Dakota State @ Montana +3.1 147.3 68% 81–72 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Weber State +8.9 152.3 80% 66–92 ✓
Texas State @ Rice +4.0 135.1 63% 72–77 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Montana State +4.2 141.0 67% 74–82 ✓
Northwestern @ Wisconsin +4.0 152.6 69% 73–85 ✓
North Dakota @ Idaho +10.7 142.1 83% 58–90 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Denver +7.1 156.5 72% 89–93 ✓
Pacific @ Air Force -4.9 128.9 23% 80–65 ✓
SMU @ Vanderbilt +13.5 158.6 88% 69–88 ✓
Virginia @ Texas +5.3 152.5 66% 88–69 ✗
Mississippi State @ Georgia Tech +4.6 147.7 72% 85–73 ✗
NC State @ Auburn +5.0 169.2 76% 73–83 ✓
Vermont @ Oregon State -1.9 149.6 42% 58–80 ✗
Utah Tech @ Santa Clara +20.6 141.9 90% 80–90 ✓
Utah Valley @ San Diego State +1.5 153.0 57% 66–77 ✓
North Alabama @ San Francisco +12.4 142.6 85% 65–63 ✗
UCLA @ Washington +2.9 137.2 62% 82–80 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.