Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | AF +200 PAC -245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +15 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | PAC -8.4 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.8 (+19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -5.8 (-9.2) | 133.9 (+11.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -5.6 (-9.4) | 127.8 (+17.2) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -4.9 (-10.1) | 128.9 (+16.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -7.4 (-7.6) | 129.5 (+15.5) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 8-10 |
| Home | 3-15 | 11-3 |
| Away | 0-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L25 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#305) | 4.6 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#258) | 1.90 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#249) | 2.82 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#247) | 0.567 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | PAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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