Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UPST -142 CCU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +7 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | UPST -8.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -3.3 (+3.7) | 139.7 (+23.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -4.7 (+2.3) | 136.7 (+26.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -5.0 (+2.0) | 137.1 (+25.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -4.6 (+2.4) | 140.7 (+22.3) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2024 | CCU 73 – 51 UPST |
| Nov 30, 2023 | CCU 72 – 70 UPST |
| Nov 19, 2022 | UPST 79 – 78 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#199) | -5.1 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#223) | -0.11 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.29 (#299) | -0.43 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#197) | 0.467 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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