Betting Lines
| Spread | CCU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | CCU -280 UPST +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +22 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | CCU -12.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-34.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCU -8.1 (+13.9) | 139.8 (-15.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -10.3 (+11.7) | 145.6 (-21.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCU -10.3 (+11.7) | 144.2 (-20.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCU -11.2 (+10.8) | 141.3 (-17.3) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | UPST 85 – 78 CCU |
| Nov 30, 2023 | CCU 72 – 70 UPST |
| Nov 19, 2022 | UPST 79 – 78 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 2-14 |
| Home | 6-8 | 4-10 |
| Away | 3-13 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 85.5 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#266) | -12.5 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.15 (#321) | -3.24 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.51 (#328) | -4.90 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#320) | 0.384 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 58.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.0% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.1% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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