Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | NAU +130 SDST -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +13 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | NAU -2.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -1.1 (-14.1) | 139.3 (-2.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -3.5 (-16.5) | 138.6 (-1.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -3.4 (-16.4) | 139.7 (-2.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -3.8 (-16.8) | 141.0 (-4.0) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-7 | 9-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#202) | 0.4 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#185) | -0.95 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#174) | -1.00 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#180) | 0.416 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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