Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | ORST -175 UVM +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +22 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -3.2 (+25.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.8 (-23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -0.6 (+22.6) | 147.3 (-9.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -1.0 (+23.0) | 147.6 (-9.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -1.9 (+23.9) | 149.6 (-11.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -1.8 (+23.8) | 147.7 (-9.7) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-4 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#261) | 1.9 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#278) | 0.36 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.88 (#277) | 0.70 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#253) | 0.535 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 35.6% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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