Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | AUB -258 NCSU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -3.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 185.9 (-29.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -8.0 (+2.0) | 162.3 (-6.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -6.3 (+3.7) | 167.8 (-11.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -5.0 (+5.0) | 169.2 (-13.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -5.2 (+4.8) | 170.0 (-14.0) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#31) | 15.2 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#47) | 1.31 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.05 (#29) | 2.78 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#53) | 0.564 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 51.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 42.2% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 61.0% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 40.5% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 65.1% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 33.8% |
Game Analysis
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