Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
James A. Rhodes Arena · December 4, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread AKR -23.5 Away covered
O/U 157.5 Over
Money AKR -6500 / BUCK +2000
Model Predictions
Spread Total AKR win
Actual AKR +20 174 Won
Massey AKR -29.3 (-9.3)
Massey Totals 164.9 (+9.1)
Bradley-Terry 98%
Weighted B-T 100%
Efficiency Plus ML AKR -23.9 (-3.9) 152.9 (+21.1) 90%
Baseline Tuned ML AKR -23.7 (-3.7) 151.4 (+22.6) 91%
Baseline ML AKR -27.7 (-7.7) 154.1 (+19.9) 91%
Baseline Plus ML AKR -25.7 (-5.7) 152.8 (+21.2) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings AKR BUCK
Overall 29-6 10-23
Conference 17-1 6-12
Home 15-0 6-8
Away 9-3 4-13
Neutral 5-3 0-2
Last 5 3-2 0-5
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 86.4 67.4
Avg Pts Against 75.0 76.3
Massey 14.6 (#26) -9.7 (#314)
Bradley-Terry 1.64 (#70) -1.44 (#290)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.43 (#68) -1.99 (#286)
RPI 0.594 (#54) 0.438 (#271)
Shooting & Four Factors AKR BUCK
FG% 52.7% 40.4%
3PT% 42.7% 33.0%
REB / G 34.1 32.0
OREB / G 10.4 9.6
AST / TO 1.84 0.80
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 61.9% 47.4%
TOV% 14.4% 21.3%
ORB% 34.0% 27.2%
FT Rate 24.8% 27.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.9% 56.8%
Opp TOV% 20.2% 18.6%
DRB% 65.4% 68.2%
Opp FT Rate 23.7% 27.2%

Game Analysis

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