Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -192 DREX +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -8.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -5.6 (-3.6) | 141.0 (+7.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | AMER -4.5 (-2.5) | 140.5 (+7.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | AMER -5.6 (-3.6) | 138.9 (+9.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -6.2 (-4.2) | 139.8 (+8.2) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#219) | -7.0 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#245) | -1.14 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#226) | -1.77 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#228) | 0.408 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 44.0% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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