Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | TEX -175 UVA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +19 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | TEX -2.0 (-21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -4.2 (-23.2) | 151.3 (+5.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -4.7 (-23.7) | 151.0 (+6.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -5.3 (-24.3) | 152.5 (+4.5) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -4.8 (-23.8) | 152.3 (+4.7) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 30-6 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.7 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#64) | 12.4 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#91) | 2.08 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#43) | 3.08 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#211) | 0.556 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 44.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 17.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 46.8% |
| FT Rate | 34.7% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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