Betting Lines
| Spread | WMU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | WMU -238 USI +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WMU +14 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | WMU -6.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WMU -4.6 (+9.4) | 151.8 (+10.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WMU -4.7 (+9.3) | 145.0 (+17.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WMU -5.2 (+8.8) | 146.3 (+15.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WMU -6.2 (+7.8) | 151.1 (+10.9) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 4-16 |
| Home | 7-8 | 3-10 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#286) | -8.7 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#249) | -2.09 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#264) | -2.41 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#260) | 0.396 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 25.2% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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