Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
Fant-Ewing Coliseum · December 4, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ULM -9.5 Home covered
O/U 149.5 Under
Money ULM -550 / MVSU +410
Model Predictions
Spread Total ULM win
Actual ULM +14 118 Won
Massey ULM -10.1 (+3.9)
Massey Totals 168.6 (-50.6)
Bradley-Terry 73%
Weighted B-T 74%
Baseline Plus ML ULM -7.5 (+6.5) 153.1 (-35.1) 84%
Model 4 ML ULM -6.2 (+7.8) 152.3 (-34.3) 79%
Model 3 ML ULM -6.2 (+7.8) 152.9 (-34.9) 77%
Baseline ML ULM -7.3 (+6.7) 150.1 (-32.1) 81%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ULM MVSU
Overall 4-28 3-30
Conference 1-17 2-16
Home 3-10 2-9
Away 1-15 1-18
Neutral 0-3 0-3
Last 5 0-5 0-5
Streak L8 L3
Avg Pts For 71.7 63.2
Avg Pts Against 85.4 83.7
Massey -15.5 (#355) -20.6 (#365)
Bradley-Terry -3.25 (#350) -3.17 (#349)
W. Bradley-Terry -4.62 (#349) -4.43 (#342)
RPI 0.267 (#364) 0.351 (#349)
Shooting & Four Factors ULM MVSU
FG% 41.1% 41.0%
3PT% 31.5% 29.0%
REB / G 30.7 32.1
OREB / G 8.7 9.3
AST / TO 0.95 0.63
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.7% 45.4%
TOV% 18.5% 23.7%
ORB% 23.0% 26.3%
FT Rate 19.7% 24.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.9% 55.5%
Opp TOV% 16.5% 13.5%
DRB% 62.0% 60.6%
Opp FT Rate 18.9% 40.3%

Game Analysis

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