Betting Lines
| Spread | PRST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | SDAK +120 PRST -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRST +6 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | PRST -2.9 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.8 (-19.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRST -1.3 (-4.7) | 152.5 (-4.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -0.3 (-6.3) | 153.5 (-5.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRST -0.1 (-5.9) | 155.9 (-7.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRST -0.1 (-5.9) | 155.2 (-7.2) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-10 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.7 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#271) | 1.3 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#239) | 0.67 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#214) | 0.63 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#249) | 0.567 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | PRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 40.7% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 38.9% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 34.2% |
Game Analysis
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