Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | ILST -1100 EKU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +11 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -19.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -15.0 (-4.0) | 146.3 (+20.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -17.1 (-6.1) | 145.3 (+21.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -16.1 (-5.1) | 145.9 (+21.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -18.5 (-7.5) | 147.5 (+19.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 7-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 83.1 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#89) | -7.8 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#115) | -2.49 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#137) | -3.39 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#90) | 0.463 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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