Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
CEFCU Arena · December 4, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ILST -12.5 Away covered
O/U 154.5 Over
Money ILST -1100 / EKU +700
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILST win
Actual ILST +11 167 Won
Massey ILST -19.1 (-8.1)
Massey Totals 148.5 (+18.5)
Bradley-Terry 99%
Weighted B-T 100%
Efficiency Plus ML ILST -15.0 (-4.0) 146.3 (+20.7) 87%
Baseline Tuned ML ILST -17.1 (-6.1) 145.3 (+21.7) 88%
Baseline ML ILST -16.1 (-5.1) 145.9 (+21.1) 87%
Baseline Plus ML ILST -18.5 (-7.5) 147.5 (+19.5) 87%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILST EKU
Overall 23-13 11-21
Conference 12-8 7-11
Home 14-2 8-7
Away 7-7 3-13
Neutral 2-4 0-1
Last 5 4-1 0-5
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 74.1 77.5
Avg Pts Against 69.1 83.1
Massey 6.2 (#89) -7.8 (#288)
Bradley-Terry 0.80 (#115) -2.49 (#330)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.85 (#137) -3.39 (#323)
RPI 0.563 (#90) 0.463 (#231)
Shooting & Four Factors ILST EKU
FG% 44.5% 40.2%
3PT% 33.1% 29.7%
REB / G 38.1 37.3
OREB / G 9.6 13.0
AST / TO 1.31 0.89
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.3% 47.4%
TOV% 13.3% 18.3%
ORB% 26.9% 31.6%
FT Rate 28.2% 20.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.0% 55.5%
Opp TOV% 13.8% 13.7%
DRB% 77.8% 66.7%
Opp FT Rate 21.6% 28.9%

Game Analysis

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